US industrial production is expected to increase by a slim 0.1% in tomorrow’s March report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median prediction matches the previous month’s 0.1% rise. Recent surveys of economists, however, anticipate that output will be considerably weaker: several consensus forecasts predict a moderate decline for March.
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US Retail sales increased 0.9% in March, the first monthly rise since last November, the Census Bureau reports. The gain — the strongest in a year — pulls this key indicator back from the brink of what had been an ominously developing trend—three back-to-back monthly declines through February. But while today’s numbers suggest that consumer spending may be on the upswing again, the latest figures still leave room for doubt until we see more data. Why? The year-over-year comparison, while still positive, continues to slide.
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Is the US economy pulling out of its first-quarter slump? Or does the recent slowdown in growth presage deeper troubles for the macro trend? A clearer view may emerge after this week’s economic reports, starting with today’s update on retail sales for March. Industrial production is on tap for tomorrow, followed by housing starts and jobless claims on Thursday. Meanwhile, Treasury yields remain low by recent standards as the market awaits fresh data to reassess the economic outlook and expectations for the Fed’s first interest rate hike.
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● Eurozone Feb industrial production much stronger than expected | Reuters
● urozone Banks See Lending Lifted by QE, Low Rates | WSJ
● U.K. consumer prices stay flat in March | MarketWatch
● UK House Price Inflation Eases For Fifth Month | RTT
● Greece denies default accusations | BBC
● Oil above $58 on U.S. shale output report, Mideast | Reuters
● ‘India will grow at 8-10% for next 15 yrs’ | Times of India
● Russia’s Gazprom Warns Europe Over Price of Natural | NY Times

US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in tomorrow’s March report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median prediction reflects a moderate rebound vs. the previous month’s 0.6% decline. By contrast, recent surveys of economists project a sharply stronger revival for retail spending in March.
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Most of the glowing analysis of so-called smart beta ETFs focuses on individual funds and how they offer advantages over their conventionally designed counterparts that weight securities by market capitalization—classic beta, as we’ll call them here. But what happens when we design portfolios with smart beta products? How do they compare with an equivalent classic beta asset allocation? It’s hard to develop solid research here because real-world track records for smart beta (SB) are still relatively short. But one set of equity SB funds has been around for more than five years, offering some perspective on what these supposedly new and improved ETFs bring to portfolio design. As we’ll see, however, the results don’t look materially different from using conventional beta products.
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● The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates | Alan Blinder (WSJ)
● The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher | Bloomberg
● China growth seen slowing to 6.9% in Q1: AFP survey | CNA
● World Bank Sees Slower Growth For Developing East Asia | RTT
● China’s March exports shrink 15% y/y in shock fall | Reuters
● BOJ Kuroda: Japan Economy to Continue Moderate Recovery | MNI
● Oil surges above $59 as traders cover short positions | Reuters
● Italy’s Feb Industrial Output Increased 0.6% in February | Istat

● Generation Jobless?: Turning the youth unemployment crisis into opportunity
By Peter Vogel
Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan)
Generation Jobless? uniquely explores the characteristics of both today’s and tomorrow’s youth and the causes of the youth unemployment crisis. The book takes a global, multi-stakeholder perspective to showcase proven solutions to tackle the crisis. Featuring interviews and input from business leaders, policy makers, educators, entrepreneurs and the Next Generation itself, it offers a positive and constructive look at change by directing each group to become part of the solution and in particular youth to take on responsibility for themselves and their peers by turning into job creators rather than job seekers.
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A week has passed since we learned that the growth rate for US payrolls in March suffered a dramatic slowdown for the monthly comparison. The annual pace is still robust, but that didn’t stop some pundits from announcing that the macro apocalypse has arrived. But the incoming numbers for this week beg to differ. Reading all the key reports since Monday implies that the weak March profile for the labor market represents a temporary stumble rather than an early warning of deeper trouble ahead. In short, the outlook for moderate economic growth remains a compelling forecast until the data says otherwise.
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The outlook for the US economy improved a bit in early April, signaling continued growth for the near term, according to a markets-based estimate of the macro trend. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at just over +8.0% yesterday (Apr. 9), the highest since late-Feb. The benchmark’s moderately positive readings suggest that  business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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