US retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in Thursday’s update (Dec. 12) for November vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The prediction is slightly higher than the previously reported 0.4% increase for October. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection for November is slightly below consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists.
Asset Allocation & Rebalancing Review | 10 Dec 2013
It’s the gift that keeps on giving: US stocks. Equities in these United States are up 30% year-to-date, based on our ETF proxy (Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)). It’s debatable if this asset class is precariously defying gravity or accurately reflecting stronger fundamentals. In any case, it’s a sight to behold. A 30% gain for a trailing US equities isn’t unprecedented, but it’s neither common nor enduring. Whatever the future holds, this much is clear: if your strategy was light on US stocks this year, your results probably look a bit pale against passive strategy benchmarks that hold market-value weights for this year’s leader.
Q4:2013 US GDP Nowcast: +2.0% | 12.09.2013
This year’s fourth-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 2.0% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to The Capital Spectator’s revised average econometric nowcast. The projected growth rate is slightly higher than the previous 1.9% estimate, which was published on November 18. The government’s initial estimate of this year’s Q4 GDP is scheduled for release on January 30.
Technical Issues As The Capital Spectator Migrates To WordPress
In the coming days (weeks?) I’ll be attempting to transition The Capital Spectator to WordPress from the existing MovableType platform. As a result, the site may go dark at times as I wrestle with the tech gods and work through the inevitable bugs that will pop up.
Book Bits | 12.7.13
● Going Viral
By Karine Nahon and Jeff Hemsley
Summary via publisher, Polity
We live in a world where a tweet can be instantly retweeted and read by millions around the world in minutes, where a video forwarded to friends can destroy a political career in hours, and where an unknown man or woman can become an international celebrity overnight. Virality: individuals create it, governments fear it, companies would die for it. So what is virality and how does it work? Why does one particular video get millions of views while hundreds of thousands of others get only a handful? In Going Viral, Nahon and Hemsley uncover the factors that make things go viral online. They analyze the characteristics of networks that shape virality, including the crucial role of gatekeepers who control the flow of information and connect networks to one another. They also explore the role of human attention, showing how phenomena like word of mouth, bandwagon effects, homophily and interest networks help to explain the patterns of individual behavior that make viral events.
Payrolls & Personal Spending Rise As Income Dips
The labor market expanded again last month: private payrolls increased 196,000 in November, moderately more than expected, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric projection. Even so, last month’s gain fell short of October’s revised 214,000 rise, although the pace of growth in November still suggests that the economy is creating jobs at a slightly faster rate these days compared with the lesser gains in recent history. Meanwhile, today’s update on personal income and spending brings mixed news. Personal consumption expenditures advanced 0.3% in October—in line with expectations. Disposable personal income, however, retreated 0.2%–the first monthly instance of red ink since January.
Today’s Upbeat Macro Reports Probably Overstate Growth Prospects
This morning’s economic updates for the US paint an encouraging profile, but it may be a bit misleading. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second-quarter GDP up by a hefty degree, estimating that the nation’s output of goods and services increased 3.6% for the three months through September (seasonally adjusted annualized real rate). That’s substantially higher than the 2.8% gain in the advance estimate for Q3.
Personal Consumption Expenditures: October 2013 Preview
US personal consumption spending for October is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. Today’s average projection is slightly above the previously reported 0.2% increase for September. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average 0.3% forecast for October matches the projections in three surveys of economists.
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: November 2013 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 180,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s November update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric point forecast. The projected gain is substantially below the previously reported increase of 212,000 for October. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s average November projection falls between a pair of relatively wide-ranging consensus forecasts, based on surveys of economists.
ADP: Job Growth “Appears To Be Picking Up”
The US economy added a net 215,000 private-sector jobs last month, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report—the biggest monthly gain in a year. The upbeat news suggests that the better-than-expected October payrolls report from the Labor Department isn’t a fluke after all.