Initial jobless claims dropped last week by a modest 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 422,000. That’s a sign that the labor market isn’t poised to deteriorate further, but the still-elevated pace of new applications for unemployment benefits also suggests that job growth is still struggling. In one respect, we dodged a bullet–for now. But let’s be clear: nothing less than robust job growth will suffice to offset what looks to be a new summer slowdown in the offing. It’s still too early to talk about a new recession, but the risk is inching higher. That threat remains small, but the change in trend isn’t encouraging.
Strategic Briefing | 6.2.2011 | U.S. Labor Market
Scary signs for jobs
CNNMoney | June 1
All eyes in the financial world are on the government’s monthly labor report due Friday, hoping to see that the job market continued to grow in May. But after several indicators pointed to a recent slowdown in job growth, the glass is now looking closer to empty than full. “You could call it a soft patch, but it’s the second or third soft patch we’ve seen in the recovery,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist with Capital Economics. “For a recovery that is less than two years old, it’s troubling to say the least.”
Two More Warning Signs For The Economy
Here we go again: Another batch of economic updates and another round of disappointment. That sums up the latest numbers released this morning via the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Manufacturing Index. In both cases, the trend has taken a turn for the worse. The bad news arrives on the heels of yesterday’s discouraging trio of economic reports. Stepping back and considering the latest updates suggests that we’ve entered a nasty pattern for macro news.
Major Asset Classes | May 2011 Performance Update
Bonds in the U.S. and emerging markets, along with REITs posted gains last month while stocks and commodities retreated. That’s no surprise, given the renewed worries for economic growth. Meanwhile, our proprietary Global Market Index (GMI), a passively weighted mix of all the major asset classes, shed 1.1% in May.
Three Economic Reports, Three More Reasons To Worry
A trio of economic reports released this morning bring fresh clues about the outlook for the macro trend, but all three offer only more reason to wonder if the economy can maintain positive momentum in the months ahead.
Strategic Briefing | 5.31.2011 | U.S. Housing Market
Home Prices in U.S. Probably Kept Falling as Housing Absent From Recovery
Bloomberg | May 31
U.S. home prices probably slumped in March by the most in 16 months, indicating residential real estate will keep weighing on the expansion, economists said before a report today… “Weak demand and a deluge of discounted sales of distressed properties have weighed significantly on prices,” said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “It’s hard to be enthusiastic about the economy’s prospects as long as house prices are falling.” A backlog of foreclosures poised to reach the market means prices may stay depressed, dissuading builders from taking on new-home construction projects.
Book Bits For Saturday: 5.28.2011
● I Am John Galt: Today’s Heroic Innovators Building the World and the Villainous Parasites Destroying It
Summary via publisher, Wiley
Inspired by Ayn Rand’s characters in Atlas Shrugged
Consumer Income & Spending Rise In April, But Warning Signs Persist
Disposable personal income and personal consumption spending rose last month, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. But after adjusting for inflation, the nominal rise fades to zero for income and posts only the smallest of increases for consumption. As such, today’s income and spending report is likely to give bears and bulls something to chew on.
New Jobless Claims Rise By 10,000 Last Week
Today’s update on initial jobless claims suggests that the recovery is at risk of stalling. Indeed, the April surge in new filings for unemployment benefits warned as much. Although the surge has moderated this month, the data appears stuck in a range that implies weak economic growth at best.
New Durable Goods Orders Tumble In April
New orders for durable goods suffered a hefty fall last month, dropping 3.6% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Census Bureau reports. That’s the biggest monthly slide since last October’s 3.7% retreat. This isn’t news we want to hear right now, given renewed worries of an economic slowdown. What’s more, there’s no statistical hiding spot: April’s drop in new orders was broad based. But the trend is still positive on an annual basis, and that counts for something. Indeed, given the unusually high rate of recent gains on a rolling 12-month basis for new orders was destined to slow and so it’s not terribly surprising to see a bit of red ink.