● Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown
Andreas Malm and Wim Carton
Interview with co-author (Malm) via NYTimes.com
Q: It’s hard for me to think of a realm outside of climate where mainstream publications would be engaging with someone, like you, who advocates political violence. (Just to be explicit about this: Malm does not endorse or advocate any political violence that targets people. His aim is violence against property.) Why are people open to this conversation?
A: If you know something about the climate crisis, this means that you are aware of the desperation that people feel. It is quite likely that you feel it yourself. With this desperation comes an openness to the idea that what we’ve done so far isn’t enough. But the logic of the situation fundamentally drives this conversation: All attempts to rein in this problem have failed miserably. Which means that, virtually by definition, we have to try something more than we’ve tried…. Political history is replete with movements that have conducted sabotage without taking the next step. But the risk is there. One driver of that risk is that the climate crisis itself is exacerbating all the time. It’s hard-wired to get worse. So people might well get more desperate.
The Yield Curve’s “Infallible” Recession Signal Failed This Time
There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve almost certainly amounts to a false signal.
Macro Briefing: 4 October 2024
US jobless claims rose last week, but the number of new filings for unemployment benefits remains low relative to history. The 4-week average, which reduces some of the week-to-week noise, continues to trend lower. “For the moment, the labor market looks steady as a rock and the economy appears to have missed falling headlong over the cliff into the depths of recession,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Momentum, Large-Cap Growth Factors Still Leading This Year
Betting against momentum and large-cap growth continues to be a losing proposition, at least in relative terms, for positioning US equity portfolios in 2024, based on a set of factor ETFs. These risk premia have dominated for much of the year and it’s not obvious that the trend is set to change, based on trading through Oct. 2.
Macro Briefing: 3 October 2024
Hiring at US companies rebounded in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. “Job creation showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown,” notes ADP Research. “Only one sector, information, lost jobs. Manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.”
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 October 2024
The long-term performance forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge lower in September. Today’s revised estimate marks the third straight month of decline for GMI, an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 October 2024
Israel plans a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack from Iran that threatens to shift the Middle East to a regionwide war. “A full-scale war, or even a more limited one, could be devastating for Lebanon, Israel, and the region,” says Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Major Asset Classes | September 2024 | Performance Review
Emerging-markets stocks surged in September, delivering the lead performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs. Real estate shares were also strong performers last month, extending recent strength for these stocks. Commodities, once again, were the downside outlier.
Macro Briefing: 1 October 2024
Israel launches ground war into Lebanon. The incursion is a “limited, localized and targeted ground raids” against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said in a statement.
Dockworkers at ports from Maine to Gulf coast go on strike. AP reports: “Supply chain experts say consumers won’t see an immediate impact from the strike because most retailers stocked up on goods, moving ahead shipments of holiday gift items. But if it goes more than a few weeks, a work stoppage would significantly snarl the nation’s supply chain, potentially leading to higher prices and delays in goods reaching households and businesses.”
The US stock market rose on Monday, setting a new record closing price, based on the S&P 500 Index: “Everything is about the growth side of the economy, and everything is about the consumer,” says Stuart Kaiser, Citi head of US equity trading strategy. “Any data that suggests consumer spending is holding in and you’re not seeing the weakness that people are worried that the Fed is worried about, I think that’s all going to be positive for equity markets.”
Recent Data Still Point To Solid US Growth For Q3
The resonance of summer warnings that the US economy is on the precipice of recession continue to fade from the perspective of the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. The latest run of numbers continues to highlight encouraging nowcasts for the government’s initial Q3 report, scheduled for release on Oct. 30.