Growth remains on track to soften in the first quarter, based on the median GDP nowcast for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although recession risk is still low, output looks set to downshift for a second straight quarter.
Macro Briefing: 16 February 2024
* Partial government shutdown on March 1 possible without political compromise
* US homebuilder sentiment improves for third straight month in February
* Industrial output in US ticked down in January, remaining soft for second month
* Regional Fed mfg surveys (Philly and NY) for February show mix results
* US jobless claims drop to one-month low as layoffs stay low
* US retail sales fell more than expected in January:
The Sloppy Dance Between The US 10-Year Yield And Inflation
Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals. As a quick follow-up, what does a simple empirical review of historical suggest vis-à-vis the 10-year rate and the latest offending inflation data point that triggered a sharp rise in the benchmark yield on Tuesday?
Macro Briefing: 15 February 2024
* US stock market rally still long way from irrational exuberance: SocGen analysts
* Immigration wave delivers economic windfall for US–at a price
* Nvidia passes Alphabet in market cap to become 3rd most valuable US firm
* Japan economy unexpectedly fell in fourth quarter
* UK economy contracted in fourth quarter
* Bitcoin market cap regains $1 trillion market cap after latest rally
* US mortgage rates are rising again, taking a toll on housing demand
* US 10-year Treasury yield dips for first time in over a week:
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 14 February 2024
The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January. The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push the first interest rate cut for this cycle later into the year. But a fresh run of “fair value” modeling continues to suggest that the 10-year yield is elevated relative to macro conditions.
Macro Briefing: 14 February 2024
* Fed expected to delay rate cuts after hotter-than-expected inflation data
* US 10yr Treasury yields rises sharply to 4.32%–highest since November
* Can a resilient US economy withstand higher interest rates?
* US patent office rules that AI systems cannot be named inventors
* Bitcoin rises above $50,000, showing resilience after hot inflation report
* US consumer inflation is firmer than expected in January:
High Yield Bonds In Emerging Markets: 2024’s Upside Outliers
Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets. Based on year-to-date results through Monday’s close (Feb. 12), this slice of global fixed income is outperforming and delivering a rare bit of strength in an otherwise lackluster field, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 13 February 2024
* Rate cuts probably won’t start until the summer, says Atlanta Fed president
* January consumer inflation expectations “mostly stable,” reports NY Fed survey
* Saudi Arabia’s Aramco suspends expansion plans due to green transition
* Natural gas prices fall to 3-1/2 year low on
* Japan’s stock market continues to test multi-decade highs
* US small business optimism remains below 50-year average in January:
Mixed Start For US Bonds So Far In 2024
Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Feb. 9).
Macro Briefing: 12 February 2024
* US recession risk may be fading, but political risk is rising, warn economists
* Inflation, earnings and retail sales are in focus for this week’s data updates
* US Q1 GDP nowcasts via Fed banks (NY and Atlanta) indicate 3%-plus growth
* Several valuation metrics suggest US stocks are becoming relatively pricey
* Estimates of neutral rate imply Fed policy is highly restrictive
* Empty office space is increasingly catching Wall Street’s attention
* Policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield rises to two-month high:
