US manufacturing activity continued to contract in August, according to survey data released for the ISM Manufacturing Index. The benchmark ticked higher last month but reflected contraction for the fifth straight month and for the 21st time in the last 22 months. The report also showed that manufacturers continue to pay higher prices for inputs. “Input price pressures moved up modestly to the highest in three months, but they are not so high in our judgment to threaten continued slow disinflation,” says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital. “No bar to a September rate cut here but nothing to push the Fed to a half-point cut either.”
Major Asset Classes | August 2024 | Performance Review
US real estate investment trusts led global markets higher for a second straight month in August, based on set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. Another performance redux: commodities were the outlier, posting the only monthly loss, echoing the setback in July.
Macro Briefing: 3 September 2024
US consumer sentiment ticked up in August, marking the first rise after four straight monthly declines, according to the University of Michigan’s survey. “Consumers’ short- and long-run economic outlook improved, with both figures reaching their most favorable levels since April 2024 and a particularly sizable 10% improvement for long-run expectations that was seen across age and income groups,” writes Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
The improvement follows a stronger rise in US personal consumption expenditures in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Consumer spending increased 0.5%, picking up from June’s 0.3% advance.
Continue reading
The Workers Have Left The Building
The Capital Spectator is clocking out early for the Labor Day holiday. The usual schedule of toiling in the editorial salt mines resumes with the morning whistle on Tuesday, Sep. 3. Cheers!
Momentum And Large-Cap Growth Still Lead Equity Factor Returns
Betting against the hottest equity risk factors this year has been a painful strategy, if only in relative terms. But no matter how you slice the numbers, momentum and large-cap growth continue to outperform in 2024, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug. 27).
Macro Briefing: 28 August 2024
* US home prices rose 5.4% in June vs year-ago level–faster than inflation
* AI bellwether Nvidia set to report earnings today after closing bell
* Across-the-board tariffs for US may be coming. Here’s what to expect
* 3 contrarian strategies worth a fresh look: EM stocks, value and small caps
* US consumer confidence rises to a six-month high in August:
US Recession Risk Is Still Low Via Q3 GDP Nowcasts
If a recession in the US has started, or is imminent, the threat has yet to show up in the latest run of nowcasts for third-quarter GDP. That’s no guarantee that the economy will continue expanding, but it’s an encouraging sign.
Macro Briefing: 27 August 2024
* Exxon forecasts fossil fuels to dominate energy use through 2050
* IBM is latest tech firm to downsize in China
* UBS Wealth Management sees US recession risk odds ticking up to 25%
* Texas factory activity exhibited little growth in August: Dallas Fed survey
* US durable goods orders surge in July due to transport equipment orders:
Africa Stocks Overtake US Shares As Top Performer In 2024
Earlier this month I discussed the possibility that the US stock market’s year-to-date performance would slip to second place as Africa shares rallied. Nearly two weeks later, the switch is complete, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 26 August 2024
* Oil prices expected to remain elevated amid risk of wider Middle East war
* US 10yr yield falls to 3.80% after Fed’s Powell talks of rate cuts
* Gold holds near record high after Powell’s dovish policy comments
* German business sentiment falls for third consecutive month in August
* US new home sales in July rise to highest level in over a year:
