The backup in Treasury yields may be a warning sign that the odds are slipping that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the next policy meeting on Nov. 7.
Macro Briefing: 29 October 2024
US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29% on Monday, the highest since July. “If the economic data this week [especially Friday’s jobs report] is strong, then expectations for a November rate cut will fall, potentially hard, and that could inject some volatility into markets. Bottom line, Goldilocks data is important this week to keep rate cut expectations stable,” says Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.
Busy Week Of Economic Reports Scheduled Ahead Of The Election
The last full week ahead of the US election is jam-packed with key economic reports. As a result, the potential for surprises that could sway voters is in high gear in the days to come. Here’s a quick rundown of the key releases this week.
Macro Briefing: 28 October 2024
US consumer sentiment strengthened for a third straight month in October, according to survey data published by the University of Michigan. The school’s widely-read sentiment index edged higher this month to its highest reading since April. “This month’s increase was primarily due to modest improvements in buying conditions for durables, in part due to easing interest rates,” reports Joanne Hsu, surveys of consumers director at the university.
On The Road Again…
The Capital Spectator is traveling for next several days. The usual schedule resumes on Monday, Oct. 28. Cheers!
Macro Briefing: 24 October 2024
US existing home sales fell to a 14-year low in September. “The factors that would drive higher home sales —- such as mortgage rates meaningfully lower now compared to one year ago, inventory beginning to increase and, of course, jobs continuously being added to the economy —- and yet home sales are stuck at low levels,” says Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. In sharp contrast, sales of new homes has been trending higher in recent years.
Strong US Growth Still Expected For Next Week’s Q3 GDP Report
Will the two hurricanes that hit the US Southeast region recently weigh on the upcoming third-quarter GDP data? Probably, although for the moment the impact is expected to be minimal, based on set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 23 October 2024
US economy will continue to provide much of the expected global growth this year and through 2025, the IMF projects. In its new World Economic Outlook report, the IMF lifted its 2024 and 2025 growth estimates for the US. The upgrade to America’s economic forecasts contrasts with flat or slightly lower estimates for other developed nations. For the world economy, “growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming,” the IMF reports. “At 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, the global growth projection is virtually unchanged” from this year’s April and July estimates.
Has The Bond Market Rally Peaked?
Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to cutting interest rates.
Macro Briefing: 22 October 2024
US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.21%, highest level since late-July. “With less than two weeks now until the US elections, concerns about the fiscal outlook and its potential upward pressure on inflation have become more acute,” says Robert Dishner, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.
