* Fed’s Powell reaffirms outlook for rate cuts this year, but…
* Powell insists Fed will proceed “carefully” on timing
* Lower US inflation lays groundwork for rate cuts, OECD advises
* Corporate earnings for key S&P 500 firms are in focus this week
* Deflation pressures expected to continue in China for 2024
* Tech layoffs continue despite booming US economy
* US hiring accelerated in January, rising at strongest pace in a year:
● The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives
Ernest Scheyder
Review via Sierra
Transitioning away from fossil fuels is going to take a lot of metals. Global production of lithium and graphite—essential components of EV batteries—will have to ramp up by 4,000 percent by 2040 to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals. Renewable technologies such as wind turbines and solar panels could not exist without heavy doses of metals we know, like copper, and metals we may have never heard of, like neodymium, promethium, samarium, and europium.
To get those metals, we have to mine them. And there’s the rub. “The mines opposed by the environmental lobby in the near term are, paradoxically, necessary to battle climate change in the long term,” Ernest Scheyder writes in The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives (One Signal/Atria, 2024). “Recycling alone cannot provide the materials needed to fuel the global green energy transition.”
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return, based on the average for three models (defined below). GMI is a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s revised performance estimate marks another fractionally lower forecast vs. the previous month’s outlook.
* Global manufacturing sentiment improves in January
* Bumper earnings from big tech firms cheer markets in early Friday trading
* IMF predicts housing demand in China to drop 50% over next decade
* US jobless claims, although still low, increase to 11-week high
* Job cuts in US jump to 10-month high in January
* Construction spending in US beats expectations by wide margin
* ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 15-month high in January:
Global markets were mixed in January following a strong finish in 2023 that lifted nearly all corners. Commodities bounced back last month, leading the major asset classes, while property shares led the losers, based on a set of ETFs.
* Fed leaves interest rates unchanged and downplays odds for a cut in March
* House passes $80 billion tax deal that now heads to Senate
* New warning for regional banks flashing via NY Community Bancorp downgrade
* China’s factory activity expanded for third-straight month in January
* Birthrates are still falling, raising challenges around the world
* US companies hire fewer workers than expected in January:
Will last week’s news of substantially stronger-than-expected growth for US economic output in 2023’s fourth quarter extend into this year’s Q1? It’s too soon to make high-confidence estimates, but CapitalSpectator.com’s initial median nowcast (based on several independent estimates) for this year’s first quarter suggests the expansion will continue to slow relative to the previous high point in last year’s red-hot Q3.
* Federal Reserve expected to leave rates unchanged today
* IMF upgrades global economic outlook, citing US strength, China stimulus
* China’s factory activity contracts for fourth straight month in January
* China auto exports closing in on Japan, which is still leading car exporter
* Home prices in US reach new high in November
* US job openings unexpectedly increase in December
* US Consumer Confidence Index rises to two-year high in January:
There’s no shortage of troubling developments around the world, but markets are still inclined to embrace a risk-on bias. There are exceptions, of course, but from several big-picture angles the trends continue to skew positive, based on a set of ETF pairs that serve as risk proxies through Monday’s close (Jan. 29).
* US considers how to respond to Sunday’s deadly Iranian-backed militia attack
* Democratic lawmakers pressure Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates, but…
* Is the economy too strong to warrant rate cuts?
* Eurozone growth stagnates
* Elon Musk says Neuralink implanted brain chip in a human
* Regulatory hurdles kill Amazon’s plan to buy Roomba, maker of iRobot
* US 10-year Treasury yield trades below 4.1% ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting:
