Macro Briefing: 31 January 2024

* Federal Reserve expected to leave rates unchanged today
* IMF upgrades global economic outlook, citing US strength, China stimulus
* China’s factory activity contracts for fourth straight month in January
* China auto exports closing in on Japan, which is still leading car exporter
* Home prices in US reach new high in November
* US job openings unexpectedly increase in December
* US Consumer Confidence Index rises to two-year high in January:

US bond market (BND) has lost ground so far in 2024 while US stocks continue to rise. Following last year’s 5.3% rebound, Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) has reversed course and is down 0.6% year to date. Meanwhile, US shares (VTI) are up 2.9% this year.

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