Uncertainty is as thick as ever for diving what awaits in the year ahead, but there’s still a growing consensus building that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates. Although some analysts caution that the odds for dovish policy changes aren’t as high as some forecasts suggest, the crowd is nonetheless convinced that the Fed funds target rate is on track to ease in the months ahead.
Macro Briefing: 4 January 2024
* Iran explosion adds to Middle East tensions
* Fed officials expect rate cuts in 2024: Fed minutes for December, but…
* Fed officials also said rates could remain high ‘for some time’
* US manufacturing slowed in December, ending ‘Lousy’ Year: ISM Mfg Index
* China services sector growth picks up in December
* Atlanta Fed’s nowcast model estimates US growth at moderate 2.5% for Q4
* US job openings continued easing in November:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 January 2024
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, easing to an expected 6.7% annualized total return, based on the average for three models (defined below). GMI is a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s revised performance estimate for the benchmark is slightly below last month’s outlook.
Macro Briefing: 3 January 2024
* Top Hamas leader killed in Beirut, raising fears of wider war in Middle East
* Maersk halts Red Sea shipping after Houthi militant attack
* US national debt rises to record $34 trillion
* US corporate profit growth set to accelerate in 2024, analysts predict
* Global manufacturing sector continued to contract modestly in December
* US construction spending rose for 11th straight month in November
* US manufacturing output remained weak in December via PMI survey data:
Major Asset Classes | December 2023 | Performance Review
Real estate securities rebounded sharply in December, leading the broad-based gains for the major asset classes in the final month of 2023, based on a set of ETFs. Commodities, by contrast, were the downside outlier, for December and for the calendar year that just ended.
Macro Briefing: 2 January 2024
* US government faces shutdown on Jan. 19 without new funding bill
* Shale to the rescue: US fracking keeps world awash with oil as conflicts abound
* The slowdown in the housing industry has ripple effects
* Global stock markets in 2023 mark strongest calendar-year rise since 2019
* China’s economy is struggling, admits President Xi Jinping
* China’s manufacturing sector remains sluggish, survey data show
* US Weekly Economic Index surges to highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years:
Best Of Book Bits 2023: Part II
For our final act of 2023, here’s the second installment to Best of Books 2023. Last week we reviewed highlights from this column over the past year — here’s the follow-up installment of books that captured our attention over the preceding 12 months. Happy reading–and Happy New Year!
Last Call For 2023
The Capital Spectator is pulling the plug on the rest of the year and slipping out the door. Other than part II for Book Bits on Saturday (Dec. 30), it’s arrivederci unti we return on Tues., Jan. 2. Meanwhile, be safe, be smart, be well. Ciao!
US Q4 GDP Nowcast Holds At Modest Growth Estimate
The outlook for the US economy is on track to close 2023 with a relatively upbeat outlook for the fourth quarter, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 27 December 2023
* Escalating attacks on US troops and shipping threaten wider Middle East war
* How did so many economists mistakenly forecast a US recession?
* 76% of economists see US recession risk at 50% or less in next 12 months
* US home prices post biggest gain of 2023 in October
* Texas factory activity stabilized in December after November contraction
* US economic activity rebounds in November–Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index:
