Strategic Briefing | 7.27.12 | Q2 U.S. GDP Preview

‘Subpar’ Now Par for the Economic Course
The Wall Street Journal | July 26
Friday’s first take on U.S. gross-domestic-product growth for the second quarter is unlikely to improve the mood: forecasters see an annualized increase of just 1.5%. Not only is that lower than a downward-revised 1.9% rate in the first quarter, but it would put the economy even farther off the growth trajectory that it typically would be enjoying three years after a recession’s end.

Stock futures up ahead of GDP; Facebook falls
MarketWatch | July 27
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast second-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 1.3% annualized pace, slowing from 1.9% in the first three months of the year and 3% in the final quarter of 2011.
Economy in U.S. Probably Expanded at Slowest Pace in a Year
Bloomberg | July 27
Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 1.4 percent annual rate after a 1.9 percent gain in the prior quarter, according to the median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Consumer purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy, may have grown at the weakest pace in a year.
Stocks: Investors await U.S. GDP data
CNNMoney | July 27
On the domestic front, investors await the government’s reading of U.S. economic growth during the second quarter. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney predict the economy grew at a 1.4% annual pace, down from 1.9% in the first quarter.
Forex Flash: Expect 1.3% US GDP in Q2, below 1.4% consensus – TD Securities
FXStreet | July 27
TD Securities analysts are expecting the US annualized GDP in Q2 to come in at 1.3%, just below the market consensus of 1.4%: “US GDP may be a weak 1.3%, but we don’t expect deep downward revisions as was the case with last year’s annual revisions”, wrote TD Securities analysts, pointing to risks in case of a modest upward revision as the GDI (gross domestic income) has been running modestly ahead of the “real” GDP series. Upward revisions happened in the boom years of the last decade, while downward revisions are more recent “as income tracked below the expenditure print”.
Wary consumers to weigh on growth in second quarter
Reuters | July 27
The economy probably grew at its slowest pace in a year in the second quarter as consumers spent less, possibly pushing the Federal Reserve closer to pumping more money into the economy. Gross domestic product likely expanded at a 1.5 percent annual rate between April and June, according to a Reuters poll, after rising 1.9 percent in the first three months of the year. That would mark the weakest pace of growth since the second quarter of 2011. “The economy is struggling to maintain altitude,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica in Dallas.