Daily Archives: Jan 27, 2021 at 07:49 am EST

Making Sense Of Diverging Real And Nominal Treasury Yields

The US Treasury market is confused, or so it appears. While nominal yields have been rebounding recently, real (inflation-adjusted) rates keep falling, plumbing deeper into the sub-zero realm. One of these trends will eventually break and fall in line with the other. Which one will cry “uncle” first? The answer probably resides with how the incoming inflation data shakes out in the months ahead.

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Macro Briefing: 27 January 2021

* Senate vote suggests Trump won’t be convicted in impeachment trial
* Surge in household savings point to strong economic recovery this year
* Pfizer is developing booster shot to protect against coronavirus variants
* Biden raises election meddling in call to Russia’s Putin
* Fed expected to maintain its aggressive stimulus at today’s FOMC meeting
* US Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly in January
* German consumer confidence weakens amid new coronavirus restrictions
* Mid-Atlantic manufacturing growth slows in January
* US home prices rose 9.5% year-over-year in November–highest pace in 7 years: