Daily Archives: Jan 15, 2021 at 08:43 pm EST

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 15 Jan 2021

In this issue:

  • The small-cap equity rally continues
  • Portfolio-strategy benchmarks take a hit
  • Broad-based market losses weigh on managed-risk strategies

Small-cap stocks are pricing in a rosy 2021: There are still plenty of risks lurking, including uncertainty over what the incoming Biden administration will be able to accomplish. The President-elect on Thursday outlined an ambitious $1.9 trillion pandemic relief program that, if enacted, would go a long way in juicing the economy. Whether his policy prescription survives the tortured politics of the Beltway in the weeks ahead is an open question. For now, shares in the small-cap realm appear to be anticipating a rosy year ahead (or at least one that compares favorably vs. annus horribilis that just ended).

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Research Review | 15 January 2021| Forecasting

Long-Term Stock Forecasting
Magnus Pedersen (Hvass Laboratories)
December 17, 2020
When plotting the relation between valuation ratios and long-term returns on individual stocks or entire stock-indices, we often see a particular pattern in the plot, where higher valuation ratios are strongly correlated with lower long-term stock-returns, and vice versa. Moreover the plots often show a particular curvature for this relation between valuation ratio and long-term stock-returns. The explanation turns out to be quite simple and follows directly from the mathematical definition of the annualized return. Furthermore, we can decompose the change in share-price into the change in valuation ratio such as the P/E or P/Sales ratio, and the change in the Earnings or Sales Per Share. This is intuitively obvious because the share-price simply equals the valuation ratio e.g. P/Sales multiplied by the Sales Per Share. Using this with the formula for annualized return, we get a fairly simple formula for estimating the future stock-returns, based on the current valuation ratio and our best guess for the future valuation ratio, and the future growth in e.g. Earnings or Sales Per Share, and the future Dividend Yield. This is the basis of the long-term forecasting model, for estimating the mean and standard deviation of future stock-returns. Although the forecasting model is “embarrassingly” obvious in hindsight, it has apparently never been formalized in any previous publications, which have merely studied the empirical relation between valuation ratios and long-term stock-returns, without giving a formal explanation why this relation exists, and how to use it properly for long-term forecasting. That is done in this paper and we will also show when and why the forecasting model does not work, using real-world data for both individual stocks as well as entire stock-indices such as the S&P 500, 400 and 600 for U.S. stocks, and various Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) for international stock-indices.

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Macro Briefing: 15 January 2021

* Biden outlines $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan
* Today’s US retail sales data for December expected to post decline
* Economists expect US growth at 4.3% in 2021 via new survey
* Fed’s Powell says no rate hikes on the horizon for now
* New wave of Covid-19 outbreak in China threatens economic recovery
* UK double-dip recession lurks after GDP fell 2.6% in November
* Are renewable energy stocks in a bubble?
* Philly Fed’s ADS business cycle index falls sharply, signaling US recession risk
* US import prices rose more than expected in December
* US jobless claims surged last week to a 5-month high: