Forecasting next year, never mind events in 2030, is a tough job, but somebody’s got to do it.
Prognosticating America’s future for oil and related energy trends falls on the statistical shoulders of the Energy Information Administration. Predictions must be taken with a grain of salt, of course. But since the government has gone to so much trouble to crunch the data, the least we could do is take a look.
That said, the EIA yesterday dispensed its latest prophecy on the long term on the various energies consumed, produced and imported from the vantage of the 50 states. Officially, the numbers are an advance release of the agency’s 2007 Annual Energy Outlook, scheduled for publication early next year. Unofficially, the data offer another warning of what may coming.
Availing ourselves of the advance release, we went immediately to the oil numbers. Alas, we found no reason to think that all is well on the long-term energy front, as the chart below advises. Consider that the EIA predicts that over the 25 years through 2030, domestic crude oil production will advance by a paltry 0.2% a year. Consumption, by contrast, will rise by 1.0% a year over that stretch. To underscore the obvious: a large gap between production and consumption will bedevil these United States for the next generation, much as it has for the past generation. How might the future gap be sated? Imports, of course. Once again, more of the same. To wit, the EIA projects that imports will rise 1.0% a year through 2030.
