The Institute for Supply Management publishes indices that are widely followed on Wall Street. Two in particular receive quite a bit of attention. Both were updated in recent days, and both offer conflicting signs for the economy.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for January was released last week and its message is anything but upbeat. As our chart below illustrates, this measure of manufacturing has fallen to its lowest in nearly four years. What’s more, the downward bias has been intact for a year or so, suggesting that the weakness is more than a temporary blip. Readings below 50 indicate that manufacturing activity generally is contracting, and so January’s reading of 49.3 is nothing if not clear.
