This morning’s update on durable goods orders is just what the optimists need. As a leading indicator of future economic activity, a positive reading in this space provides one more reason to think that a recession is that much further off.
Or so one could reason after digesting the numbers. New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 3.4% last month, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. That’s up from a 2.4% jump in February. In fact, advance durable goods orders rose in four of the past five months, as the chart below shows.
Encouraging as the recent record is, there’s still reason to reserve judgment about what it all means for the economy down the road. Although durable goods orders have been pushing higher lately, the gains tend to pale compared to the losses, which have been less frequent but much bigger in relative terms.