The pundits are shocked, shocked to learn that jobs are still being lost. But there’s really nothing surprising in today’s jobs report for June, released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recessions have a habit of doing that, and for longer than the crowd expects. Disappointing and discouraging? Absolutely. Unfortunately, more of the same is probably coming.
Meantime, that doesn’t change our view that the recession may be close to a technical end. But before we get into that point—again—let’s look at how the latest nonfarm payrolls stack up.
As our chart below shows, last month’s job loss was steeper than May’s. Nonfarm payrolls were lighter in June by 467,000, quite a bit deeper than May’s 322,000 decrease. The good news is that last month’s decline is still a lot better than the worst monthly tumble so far in this recession—January’s 741,000 slump.
But let’s not mince words here: job destruction remains potent. The month-after-month declines are adding up and the economy is sure to take a heavy blow as a result. At the top of the list of likely victims: consumer spending, as we’ve been discussing, including here.