Today’s update on initial jobless claims reminds that the threat of economic contraction isn’t vanquished. There’s been progress, but the dark forces of decline are still lurking.
For the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 584,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 559,000. A rise in new fillings for unemployment benefits is unsettling at this precarious stage in the economic cycle. Still, there’s nothing in today’s numbers that convinces us to alter our view that the technical end of the recession is near. For the moment, last week’s jump looks like statistical noise.