Every economic report these days seems to dispense a crucial piece of the puzzle for deciding what comes next, and this week promises (threatens?) to offer no less.
The question now is whether the stability of recent months is in danger of giving way, pushing the economy once again toward the forces of contraction. It’s been tempting to conclude that we moved beyond that in the spring, thanks to some encouraging numbers. Growth still was a ways off, but at least the recession wasn’t getting any worse, or so it seemed. If anything, the cycle appeared poised for some flat lining and perhaps a modest uptick down the road.
But in the wake of the June payrolls report, which surprised on the negative side, it’s become fashionable once more to wonder aloud if another round of trouble awaits. In that case, do we need another round of stimulus? Several key economic numbers updated this week will offer some pivotal clues.
Meantime, Warren Buffett says it’s time to fire up the stimulus guns once more. But not everyone’s convinced, at least not yet.