Gold is trading at a record high today—roughly $1240/oz as we write this morning. The standard interpretation is that the metal is pricing in higher inflation in the years ahead. That’s an accurate reading of gold’s message, but the analysis is more complicated than usual once you consider the metal’s trend of late in context with other markets and the global economic climate. In the short term, the rising demand for gold is also telling us that the risk is rising (again) for a new wave of deflation in the months ahead.