Daily Archives: May 21, 2010

A NEW SEASON OF RISK AVERSION…AGAIN

Earlier this week we pondered the potential for higher deflation in the months ahead. One of the suggestive clues was the falling inflation forecast as implied by the shrinking spread between the yields on the nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year Treasuries. At the time, the market was priced for inflation at 2.13% for the decade ahead (as of May 18). A mere 48 hours later, the market-based forecast dropped sharply: Treasuries yesterday anticipated inflation at 1.89%–the first reading under 2% since last October.

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