If a wave of deflationary threatens the global economy’s rebound, will Japan be the canary in the coal mine. Probably. It’s certainly a high risk country, in part because it’s already loaded to the gills with debt from efforts at fighting deflation over the past 20 years. There are no guarantees in macroeconomic analysis, but if Japan’s already cheerless outlook takes a turn for the worse, it may signal that deflationary winds are set to blow harder in the rest of the world.