Daily Archives: June 17, 2010

THE TRENDLESS TREND IN JOBLESS CLAIMS

Today’s update on weekly jobless claims is more of the same. New filings for unemployment benefits continue to bounce around in the seasonally adjusted weekly range of 450,000-500,000. That’s been true all year, and today’s report doesn’t change anything. The longer this goes on, the stronger the case for thinking that the rebound in the labor market is going to be sluggish—perhaps more so than even the generally muted expectations of a month ago.

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DOUBLE-DIP LINKS

Is a new recession brewing? No, or at least I don’t see the odds as particularly high for a double-dip contraction. Not today, anyway. But the risk isn’t zero. It’s still quite low, or so I estimate, but it may be rising, in part because the deflationary winds are blowing harder these days. But this is economics, and so no one’s really sure what’s coming. That doesn’t stop anyone from making forecasts, of course. And if there was ever a moment for keeping an open mind, this is it. Here’s a sampling of recent commentary on what the economic pundits are saying about the business cycle, pro and con…

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