Was Friday’s disappointing news on job growth the death knell for the recent run of economic growth? Some analysts think that the macro jig is up and that the sharp slowdown in the expansion of payrolls for March represents the point of no return. The truth is that no one knows for sure if last month’s downshift was a sign of things to come or just a temporary weak patch in an otherwise reviving labor market. In contrast to the far more widely followed establishment profile, the so-called household survey of the labor market in March certainly paints a more encouraging picture, as Scott Grannis explains. In any case, for now it’s a mystery that can only be solved with more data. That doesn’t mean we should ignore the potential for trouble–the latest establishment survey numbers are certainly disturbing at a time when growth overall remains fragile. The risk for a slowdown or worse suddenly looks higher. But it’s premature to argue with a high degree of confidence that a new recession is unavoidable.