Last week’s sharp increase in new jobless claims implies that the labor market’s recovery momentum is fading. Initial filings for unemployment benefits jumped a hefty 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000 for the week through April 7, the Labor Department reports. That’s discouraging for several reasons. First, it’s the biggest weekly increase in over three months. Second, new claims are now at the highest since late-January. Third, the upward deviation from the trend—defined as difference in the latest weekly claims number vs. its four-week moving average—is the most in nearly a year.
Daily Archives: April 12, 2012
Is Commercial Loan Growth A Positive Sign For The Economy?
Lending activity is generally considered a lagging indicator of the business cycle, and rightly so. A look at a long-term chart of business loans, for instance, shows that this series has been known to rise well after the start of a new recession. But is the value of this indicator more timely in the current climate, in which the pain of the credit crunch is seared into the collective memory?