A week ago I wondered if the rise in jobless claims in the first week of the month was due to a seasonal factors, and the inquiry still stands. But as you’ll see, today’s update raises more questions than it answers, although the short list of potential culprits starts with the seasonal influence of Easter. As for the straight numbers, new filings for unemployment benefits last week fell slightly by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000. Historical context is always crucial for evaluating the number du jour, and more so than usual with today’s news.
Daily Archives: April 19, 2012
Expecting Good News
When we last checked in on the “new abnormal”—an unusually tight connection between the market’s expectations for inflation and growth—the relationship was alive and kicking. A month later, nothing has changed, or so it appears. Taken at face value, that’s encouraging. Implied inflation (defined as the yield spread on the 10-year Treasury less its inflation-indexed counterpart) and the S&P 500 stock market index (a proxy for growth expectations) are still joined at the hip. In recent years, a fall in the inflation outlook has preceded macro weakness. But there’s no sign of that anxiety. For what it’s worth, the crowd isn’t in pricing new troubles, at least nothing that’s radically different from the usual afflictions of recent months.