For the second month in a row, the ISM Manufacturing Index was under 50—a sign that the manufacturing sector is contracting, if only slightly. Many analysts argue that a reading under 50 for this benchmark is an early warning that a new recession is near, or perhaps one that’s already started. But like any other indicator, the ISM index isn’t flawless: there have been a dozen or so instances over its 60-year-plus history when a below-50 reading wasn’t quickly followed by a recession. Still, the fact that this benchmark is now under 50 for the second consecutive month—the first run of below-50 readings since the last recession—is a sign that the manufacturing sector is struggling.
Daily Archives: August 1, 2012
A Better-Than-Expected Gain In July Payrolls, ADP Reports
Private nonfarm payrolls for the U.S. increased a better-than-expected 163,000 in July, according to the ADP Employment Report. The consensus forecast was looking for a substantially lower 125,000 gain, according to Briefing.com. Is the relatively upbeat news a sign that we could see another upside surprise in Friday’s official report from the Labor Department on the state of the jobs market? It’s a thought worth considering.
Major Asset Classes | July 2012 | Performance Review
The global economy may be facing a new round of trouble, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at last month’s returns for the major asset classes. The gains fell well short of June’s rally, but there was no mistaking the across-the-board rise in asset prices in July.