Jobless claims rose modestly last week, the Labor Department reports, but reviewing the numbers in context with recent history suggests that this indicator is still on track to trend positive. New filings for the week ended August 18 increased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000, the highest level in five weeks. But that pales as a relevant factor compared with the year-over-year change for unadjusted claims, which posted a 10% decline as of last week. That’s in line with recent history and an encouraging sign that the labor market continues to heal, albeit slowly.
Daily Archives: August 23, 2012
Fiscal Cliff Risk In Perspective
“It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.” — R.E.M.
The Congressional Budget Office warned yesterday that there’s a recession coming next year if Congress doesn’t act to soften the blow from the scheduled expiration of tax cuts and automatic budget cuts. The so-called fiscal cliff, in short, is moving closer. What can you do with this information? Nothing. Unless, of course, you’re prone to making decisions today based on forecasts six months or more into the future. But history suggests you should think twice before jumping off the forecasting cliff, regardless of who’s dispensing the prediction.