Last week’s update of the Capital Spectator Recession Risk Index (CSRRI)—a simple but revealing diffusion index based on a broad spectrum of economic and financial indicators—suggested that the probability was low that July will mark the start of a new recession. A broad review of recent history can reveal quite a lot about the business cycle, but it’s only a beginning. In an effort to peek ahead by projecting CSRRI’s readings for the next several months, modern econometric modeling techniques can help.