A monthly increase of 177,000 for private nonfarm payrolls in December is expected in tomorrow’s update (8:30am eastern) from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That estimate is higher by roughly 20,000 to 30,000 compared with a pair of consensus forecasts published by Econoday.com and Briefing.com.
Daily Archives: January 3, 2013
ADP: Payrolls Increased At A Faster Pace In December
The economy’s pace of jobs creation accelerated in December, according to this morning’s update of the ADP Employment Report. Private sector payrolls increased by 215,000 last month, a robust increase from November’s upwardly revised 148,000 gain. That’s the biggest monthly gain since February. The implication, of course, is that tomorrow’s official report on payrolls from the US Labor Department will deliver upbeat news as well.
Will Relatively Low Inflation Expectations Persist In 2013?
The new abnormal is still with us in the new year, but will 2013 break this strange relationship? I’m referring to the unusually close positive connection between the stock market and the implied inflation forecast via the yield spread between the 10-year Treasury Note and its inflation-indexed counterpart. Historically speaking, expectations of higher inflation haven’t been a reliable source of enthusiasm for the bulls, but the last several years have turned that rule on its head. When the Treasury market smells higher inflation these days, equities tend to rally, and vice versa. That’s been the dance for much of the past five years. Will it continue in the year ahead?