The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline incrementally to -0.21 in tomorrow’s December update, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That’s virtually unchanged from CFNAI’s -0.20 three-month average for November. The consensus forecast of economists calls for a slightly higher reading of -0.09 in the December report. A value below -0.70 indicates an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, the Chicago Fed advises.