Today’s weekly update on jobless claims is a good example of how the inherent noise in this data series can mislead us if we’re overly focused on the most recent data points. New filings for jobless benefits rose 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 371,000, pushing claims up to the highest level in a month. The rise is a modest surprise relative to expectations, which projected a slight decline, although the previous week’s total was revised down and so the net effect is close to neutral. In any case, today’s numbers look a bit discouraging, but a deeper review paints a substantially brighter picture.
Daily Archives: January 10, 2013
Context Is (Still) King For Portfolio Design & Management
It happened again. I was reading a story about the apparent hazards that are expected to derail an asset class that’s in my portfolio and I thought, gee, I better sell. The article presented a strong case for seeing red in the near future. But then I remembered that the asset class is just one piece of my diversified portfolio, and that my rebalancing strategy will take care of any extremes in the various components. Thinking about the big picture for my personal asset allocation reminded me that the article wasn’t all that applicable to my situation after all. Once again, my initial emotional reaction turned out to be not so helpful after all in money matters.