A markets-based profile of US economic conditions has deteriorated in recent weeks, although business cycle risk still looks low from an historical perspective. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (June 11) at 10.5%. That’s down sharply from 16%-plus levels reached last month. Even after the recent decline, MMRI remains well above the danger zone of 0% and within the roughly 10%-to-17% range that’s prevailed so far in 2013, albeit at the bottom of this year’s range. When MMRI falls under 0%, recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% equate with economic growth.
Daily Archives: June 12, 2013
US Retail Sales: May 2013 Preview
Tomorrow’s update on US retail sales for May is projected to increase by 0.6% vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That compares with a 0.1% gain reported by the Census Bureau for April. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection for May is slightly higher than forecasts based on recent surveys of economists.