Housing starts are expected to total 929,000 in tomorrow’s update for May, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). That’s a moderate increase vs. the previously reported 853,000 for April. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s average projected gain for May is slightly below the numbers in several consensus forecasts drawn from surveys of economists.
Daily Archives: June 17, 2013
US Economic Profile | 6.17.13
Economic news in recent months has been somewhat mixed, but the broad trend continues to look encouraging. The May profile of the economy, using the numbers published so far, shows few signs of stress, based on today’s update of The Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend Index (ETI) and Economic Momentum Index (EMI), which are comprised of 14 economic and financial indicators. As a result, business cycle risk remains low and so it’s unlikely that the NBER will eventually declare May as the start of a new recession, as suggested by the current data sets available.