It’s the first day of summer and your editor is slipping out the back door for a week-long vacation. France, to be precise, starting with a few days in Paris and then down to Montpellier, on the coast near Spain. Given the scenic and gastronomic distractions (not to mention the wine), it’s best to assume that blogging will be light to non-existent (with an emphasis on the latter) for the week ahead. I’ll be back with the usual fare, starting Monday, July 1, kicking off my (hopefully) triumphant return with an update to the monthly profile of the major asset classes. Meanwhile, until further notice, it’s summertime and the livin’ is easy…
Daily Archives: June 21, 2013
Book Bits | 6.21.13
● The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger
By David Spiegelhalter
Review via The Economist
Risk is everywhere. From tabloid headlines insisting that coffee causes cancer (yesterday, of course, it cured it) to stern government warnings about alcohol and driving, the world is teeming with goblins. For each one there is a frighteningly precise measurement of just how likely it is to jump from the shadows and get you. “The Norm Chronicles”, a new book from Michael Blastland, a journalist in love with statistics, and David Spiegelhalter, a statistician, aims to help data-phobes find their way through this blizzard of risks.
Macro-Markets Risk Index | 6.21.2013
A markets-based profile of US economic conditions continues to deteriorate in June, although business cycle risk still looks low from an historical perspective. Nonetheless, the Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (June 20) at 7.6%, the lowest since last August. The sharp decline in MMRI in recent weeks looks troubling–if it continues. For now, the index is still well above the danger zone of 0%, although the margin of comfort is shrinking rapidly. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% equate with economic growth.
Q2:2013 US GDP Nowcast | 6.21.2013
US GDP is expected to rise 2.1% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) for this year’s second quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. Today’s update is slightly lower than the previous 2.3% nowcast average for Q2, published on May 28.