Private-sector payrolls increased by a net 188,000 last month, according to the June update of the ADP Employment Report. That’s a decent improvement over May’s tepid 134,000 advance. Today’s release implies that Friday’s official estimate on the state of the June labor market from the government will turn in a respectable gain.
Daily Archives: July 3, 2013
Macro-Markets Risk Index | 7.3.2013
US economic conditions have stabilized in recent days, according to a markets-based profile of the macro trend. The deterioration that persisted through most of June has, for the moment, subsided. Even after the sharp decline in the Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) in recent weeks, this benchmark closed yesterday (July 2) at 7.0%–a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. Although MMRI is now at its lowest value since last August, it’s still well above the danger zone of 0%. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply economic growth.