Industrial production increased by 0.3% in June, in line with expectations. Although the advance was modest, last month’s rise was the highest since February, the Federal Reserve reports. The upturn was enough to boost the year-over-year gain to 2.0% through June, or slightly better than May’s 1.7% annual rate. The cyclically sensitive manufacturing component also turned higher last month, gaining 0.3%, which is also the best monthly advance since February.
Daily Archives: July 16, 2013
Macro-Markets Risk Index | 7.16.2013
US economic conditions continue to stabilize at relatively lower levels vs. the first five months of 2013, according to a markets-based profile of the macro trend. The deterioration that persisted through most of June has faded in recent weeks, giving way to a comparatively subdued trend. Despite the sharp decline in the Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) in June, this benchmark closed yesterday (July 15) at 8.8%–a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. Although MMRI is near its lowest value since last August, it remains well above the danger zone of 0%. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply economic growth.
US Housing Starts: June 2013 Preview
Housing starts are expected to total 940,000 in tomorrow’s update for June, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a moderate increase vs. the previously reported 914,000 for May. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s average projected gain for June is slightly below the numbers in several consensus forecasts drawn from surveys of economists.