The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise incrementally to -0.39 in the June report, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That compares with CFNAI’s previously reported three-month average of -0.43 for May. A value below -0.70 indicates an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with economic expansion, albeit at a below-trend rate, in the update for June, which is scheduled for release on Monday, July 22.
Daily Archives: July 19, 2013
US Economic Profile | 7.19.13
Business cycle risk continues to remain low, according to the June update of the Economic Trend (ETI) and Momentum indexes (EMI). Both benchmarks, which measure the broad trend in the economy by way of 14 economic and financial indicators, are still well above their respective danger zones. As a result, the NBER is unlikely to declare June as the start of a new recession, as suggested by the current data sets available.