The inflation-adjusted year-over-year pace in so-called high-powered money—M0, as some label it—is rising at the fastest rate since 2009, when the Federal Reserve was winding down its initial monetary response to the Great Recession. The news that the growth in base money–a slice of money supply that the Fed controls directly–is accelerating arrives during a new round of chatter that the central bank will soon begin tapering its asset-buying program in the wake of last week’s upbeat economic reports. Some analysts now predict that a tapering announcement could come as early as next month, at the next FOMC policy meeting. Maybe, although a new Bloomberg survey advises that economists overall expect that the March 2014 meeting is the more likely date for a change in the monetary weather. Meanwhile, there’s nary a hint of tapering in the latest base money data. In fact, it looks like monetary policy stimulus is becoming more aggressive, or so the current numbers show.

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Recession risk is projected to remain low, according to the revised projection for the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This benchmark of the business cycle is expected to increase slightly to -0.14 in tomorrow’s delayed update for September, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. Today’s revised estimate incorporates new data that’s been published since last month’s government shutdown ended, although the current outlook is essentially unchanged from the earlier forecast for tomorrow’s September release.

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