The US economy has weathered some turbulence in recent months, including a government shutdown, higher interest rates, and a downturn in the mood among consumers. A subjective interpretation of these and other events suggests trouble for the business cycle, but for the moment that’s still assuming facts not in evidence. Macro risk remains low overall, based on measuring the broad trend via 14 economic and financial indicators. The Economic Trend (ETI) and Momentum indexes (EMI) continue to hover at levels that are well above their respective danger zones—levels that imply that the risk of a new recession was low through October.