The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to increase slightly to 0.04 in tomorrow’s update for October (scheduled for release on November 27), according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. In the previous release for September, the three-month average was estimated at -0.03. Values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with economic expansion and at a marginally higher-than-average trend rate.

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The last five years have been anything but typical for financial markets, primarily because macroeconomic conditions around the world have been conspicuously abnormal. From heightened uncertainty about economic growth to extraordinary monetary policies, there’s no shortage of reasons to argue that much has changed since the world flirted with meltdown in late-2008. Five years after looking into the abyss, and living to tell the tale, it’s reasonable to ask: Has recent history helped or hindered our efforts to design and manage multi-asset class portfolios?

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