Daily Archives: Nov 27, 2019 at 07:38 am EST

Is The Recent Rebound In Interest Rates Fading?

For much of this year through early September a downside bias in interest rates was conspicuous. The driving force: economic pessimism. The 10-year/3-month yield curve inverted in the spring and for the most part remained below-zero, offering what is widely seen as a recession forecast. But over the last three months the yield curve turned positive and key interest rates rebounded. But economic data doesn’t look any better today vs. the macro profile of three months ago—in fact, the economic trend has weakened slightly. Is that a clue for thinking that interest rates will resume a downward bias in the final month of 2019?

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Macro Briefing | 27 November 2019

US opens criminal probe into role of drug companies in opioid crisis: WSJ
China’s economy continues to slow in November: Bloomberg
Pondering the economic iron curtain that’s dividing the world: NY Times
US trade gap narrowed sharply in October: Reuters
Sales of new US homes unexpectedly fell in October: CNBC
Home prices in the US picked up in September: CNBC
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index turned slighty negative in Nov: RF
US Consumer Confidence Index ticked lower again in November: MW