Evidence is mounting that the disinflationary dive following the onset of the coronavirus crisis in the spring of 2020 is fading, giving way to a run of reflation. There’s a popular narrative that equates reflation with inflation, and that the former is destined to lead to the latter. Maybe, but maybe not.

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* Fed and Treasury officials say US jobless rate is near 10%–well above official rate
* Price tag for severe weather blowback in Texas: $50 billion
* US factories struggling to keep up with snap-back in consumer demand
* Bond yields rise ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony in Congress
* Eurozone core consumer inflation rebounds to 5-year high in January
* UK unemployment rate at 5-year high in 2020’s fourth quarter
* US Leading Economic Index rose in January, pointing to firmer growth outlook
* Texas manufacturing sector growth accelerates in February
* US economic activity strengthened in January via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: