Yearly Archives: 2021

Macro Briefing: 3 September 2021

* Millions of jobless Americans are about to lose federal unemployment benefits
* Japan’s prime minister announces he’ll quit after a year in office
* Looking for clues for predicting how the Taliban will govern Afghanistan
* China Services PMI: sector contracted in August for first time since April 2020
* US jobless claims remained strong in August
* GM to halt most production at North American plants due to chip shortage
* One of biggest hedge funds agrees to pay up to $7 billion to settle tax dispute
* US rent inflation will accelerate, predict two Fed economists predict:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 September 2021

The expected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) ticked up in August, reaching an annualized 6.1%, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. That’s a relatively elevated level compared with recent history. The forecast relates to the long-run outlook for GMI’s return over the “risk-free” rate, which is based on the yield for a 3-month Treasury bill.

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Macro Briefing: 2 September 2021

* Hurricane Ida’s remnants bring widespread flooding to US Northeast
* Global mfg growth slipped to six-month low in August via PMI survey data
* US construction spending ticked up to 9.0% annual gain, a pandemic high
* Will ending eviction protections harm the economic recovery?
* The outlook for merger arb trades looks encouraging, predicts GMO
* US manufacturing posts slightly stronger growth in August
* US private payrolls grew faster in August, but less than forecast via ADP data:

Macro Briefing: 1 September 2021

* Assessing the shift in global power relations in wake of US exit from Afghanistan
* China mfg sector posts slight decline in Aug–first drop in 1-1/2 years
* OPEC+ lifts forecast for oil demand in 2022
* India’s economy rebounded at record rate in second quarter
* German retail sales fell far more than expected in July
* US home prices post record gain in June
* Chicago PMI pulls back to 2-month low in Aug, but still reflects strong growth
* Is the stock market immune to bad news?
* US Consumer Confidence Index fell in August to six-month low:

Macro Briefing: 31 August 2021

* Last US military planes left Afghanistan, marking end of America’s longest war
* Assessing the damage in Louisiana after Hurricane Ida
* Pandemic complicates Fed’s task of defining employment goals
* Eurozone inflation rises to 3% pace in August, highest in a decade
* China’s economy comes under pressure in August via PMI survey data
* Factory growth in China slows to a crawl in August via PMI survey data
* Supply shortages continue to bedevil the economy
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index indicates softer growth in August
* US pending home sales fell for a second straight month in July:

Macro Briefing: 30 August 2021

* New Orleans loses power as Hurricane Ida rages over Louisiana coast
* Kabul airport subject to multiple but apparently failed rocket attacks
* Europe considers blocking non-essential travel from US due to Covid-19
* N. Korea appears to have restarted operations for producing nuclear weapons
* US Covid-19 hospitalizations rebound to highest level since last winter
* Weighing the outlook for China tech stocks as regulatory crackdown continues
* Veteran investor Mark Mobius recommends a 10% allocation to gold
* US personal consumption expenditures rose for a second month in July: