Daily Archives: October 13, 2025

Macro Briefing: 13 October 2025

The US breakeven employment level — the number of jobs required each month to keep the labor market in balance — has declined after immigration changes, estimates a researcher at the Dallas Fed: “A new, high-frequency estimate of break-even employment shows a dramatic reversal in immigration flows, combined with cyclical shifts in labor force participation, has caused the monthly break-even requirement to collapse from a peak of approximately 250,000 in 2023 to about 30,000 in mid-2025.”

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