The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up to a 6.0% annualized pace in May, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. The forecast, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below), is near the lower range for realized performance in recent history, based on a rolling 10-year return.
Monthly Archives: June 2023
Macro Briefing: 2 June 2023
* Senate passes debt ceiling bill, sending legislation to Biden to avert default
* Global manufacturing output rises in May but new orders continue to fall
* Arizona limits residential construction around Phoenix due to water shortage
* US manufacturing sector continues to contract in May via ISM Mfg Index
* Jobless claims edge up but remain relatively low
* Construction spending in US for April rises well above expections
* US companies hire more workers than expected in May via ADP estimate:
Major Asset Classes | May 2023 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes fell in May. The upside exceptions: US stocks and cash. Otherwise, red ink prevailed last month, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the world’s primary markets.
Macro Briefing: 1 June 2023
* House approves bill to lift debt-ceiling limit, easing default threat
* Senate under pressure to quickly pass debt-ceiling bill
* Eurozone inflation falls more than forecast in May, dropping to 6.1%
* China mfg output growth rises to 11-month high in May via PMI survey
* Eurozone manufacturing recession deepens to six-month low in May
* Fed Beige Book highlights cooling economy
* US births fell slightly in 2022 vs. 2021
* Chicago PMI tumbles in May, reflecting deeper pace of mfg contraction
* US job openings unexpectedly rose in April:
