The sharp drop in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business-conditions index in January triggered a wave of warnings. Soon after this monthly survey data was released yesterday (Jan. 16), social media and beyond lit up, warning that this was a smoking gun for the US economy’s imminent descent into recession, assuming output hadn’t already turned negative. But like most single-indicator releases, the crowd rushed to judgment and allowed the headlines du jour to overwhelm more thoughtful analysis.

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* US spending bill clears first hurdle in Senate to avoid government shutdown
* Fed’s Waller expects rate cuts this year
* China Q4 GDP growth annual growth ticks up to 5.2%–slower than expected
* Population in China fell for second straight year in 2023
* Fund managers are bullish on small cap stocks: BofA managers survey
* NY Fed Manufacturing Index plunges in January to lowest level since 2020:

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