Daily Archives: January 23, 2024

Looking For The ‘Missing Link’ In Failed Recession Models

The resilience of the US economy in 2023 was a surprise for some (many?) economists. From the start of last year through the first half, and in some case into early Q3, an ample supply recession warnings flowed like wine from the lips of the punditocracy. A careful reading of the data suggested otherwise, but high-risk warnings draw a crowd and so the dark forecasts endured and prospered, running well beyond their shelf life.

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Macro Briefing: 23 January 2024

* Polls predict Trump will effectively be GOP nominee after today’s NH primary
* Goldman’s head of trading still expects four Fed rate cuts for 2024
* China considers stock-market rescue package to address slumping prices
* Japan’s Nikkei stock market index rose to 34-year peak on Monday
* India’s stock market cap is now world’s fourth largest, overtaking Hong Kong
* US Leading Economic Index still signals recession despite growing economy:

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