The US economy remains on track to rebound in the second quarter after the modest contraction in Q1, but the expected bounce has downshifted, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Monthly Archives: July 2025
Macro Briefing: 8 July 2025
Trump announced new tariffs set to begin on Aug. 1. Imports from some of America’s biggest trade partners are targeted, including Japan and South Korea, which are set to face 25% tariffs, according to the President’s social media posts on Monday.
Bond Market Will Struggle To Price In Conflicting Risk Factors
The week ahead will provide early clues for two very different risk factors looming for the bond market.
On the one hand, the on-again/off-again risk of tariffs is lurking – a development that could create new economic headwinds that soften growth and, in theory, lower interest rates as investors seek safe havens and the Federal Reserve eases its policy stance to provide stimulus. But tariffs could also lift inflation, perhaps persuading the Fed to keep rates higher for longer if not raise rates. Deciding which aspect of the tariff effect will dominate is tricky for several reasons, including ongoing ambiguity about when or if tariffs will change and uncertainty about the macro price tag associated wiht raising import costs.
Macro Briefing: 7 July 2025
US payrolls rose more than forecast in June, increasing 147,000 for the month. “The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. For the 1-year trend, payrolls effectively held steady at a 1.15% pace of growth, in line with gains in recent months.
Cue Up The Fireworks!
When in the course of human events this week, it becomes necessary for yours truly to dissolve the usual routine and declare a particular truth to be self-evident: A long July 4 holiday weekend is an unalienable right, and so the Capital Spectator finds it necessary to declare independence from the office until the standard fare resumes on Monday, July 7. Happy Independence Day!
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 July 2025
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher for a third straight month in June, rising to an annualized 7.3% from the 7.2% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is moderately below GMI’s realized 10-year performance. The forecast is calculated as the average of three models (defined below) for GMI, an unmanaged global benchmark that’s based on a market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes (excluding cash).
Macro Briefing: 2 July 2025
US job openings rose in May, reaching the highest level since November 2024. The increase surprised economists, who expected openings to decline. Despite the latest upturn, “We suspect underlying demand for new workers continues to recede amid growing signs of consumer spending fatigue,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.
Major Asset Classes | June 2025 | Performance Review
Stocks in emerging markets extended their rally in June, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes last month, based on a set of ETFs. A broad measure of US equities delivered a robust second-place performance amid rallies for all the main categories of global markets for the month.
Macro Briefing: 1 July 2025
The US dollar has fallen more than 10% year to date, the weakest start for a calendar year since 1973. The combination tariffs, inflation concerns and rising government debt are weighing on the greenback. The dollar’s slide is making investments in the US by foreigners more expensive. “A weaker dollar has become a crowded trade and I suspect the pace of decline will slow,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at insurance group Zurich.
