Markets were already expecting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again at next week’s policy meeting ahead of yesterday’s of ADP’s estimate of private non-farm payrolls for November. Following the release of jobs data, the news strengthened the dovish outlook.
Daily Archives: December 4, 2025
Macro Briefing: 4 December 2025
US nonfarm private sector payrolls declined 32,000 in November, according to the ADP Employment Report. “While November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” said ADP’s chief economist. Some economists, however, downplayed the report: “It is too loosely correlated with the official data to be troubling,” advised Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Our model points to a first estimate of a 75,000 to 100,000 increase in private payrolls in November, which after revisions and benchmarking we think would be consistent with growth of about 25,000.”
